TRUMP / IRAN / OIL
"I think the war is going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election."
"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward." — — President Trump, Joint Base Andrews, September 9
August 28: the biggest oil deal in world history, more than doubling U.S. reserves, substantially lowering gas prices for all Americans — entry #38. The joint venture makes about 200,000 barrels a day; analysts say roughly $100 billion and three to five years to move Venezuelan output materially, and the crude is heavy and sour, competing with Canadian imports rather than replacing the light Gulf barrels Hormuz took off the market. September 9, at Joint Base Andrews, asked whether talks with Iran would resume: "We're not looking for it, to be honest." Then the war ends "immediately after the election," and oil tumbles after that, and yes, prices stay high until then. That night in Dallas he said it again from the stage. So the end of a war is now dated to a domestic election, and the mechanism he gave is not diplomacy — he ruled diplomacy out in the same breath. The reason Iran stops on November 4 is that the vote it is allegedly trying to swing will be over. Meanwhile: Friday, drones blamed on Iranian-backed fighters in Iraq knocked Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline offline, the one built to bypass a blockaded Hormuz. Sunday, Gulf states postponed talks with Iran. Monday, fresh Houthi attacks. Tuesday, Brent above $106 and WTI above $102, higher than the day of the deal. The IEA has inventories down 507 million barrels. Entry #27 was "I don't care about the midterms." Both are true if the election was always the schedule. Nobody asked what changes on November 4 that could not change on October 20.